Antananarivo Dog Survey Exposes Low Vaccination Coverage and a Short-Lived Owned Population
Rabies control in Antananarivo now rests on a much clearer picture of the city’s owned dogs, and the picture is uncomfortable. In a longitudinal door-to-door survey across 21 _fokontany_, 30.5% of 2,518 households reported dog ownership, 1,273 dogs were recorded, and the estimated dog-to-human ratio was 1:9. The owned population was mostly male, with a median age of three years, and its turnover was fast enough to complicate any vaccination campaign that relies on a single annual push.
A dog population that ages quickly and dies young can erase coverage gains within months.
High Turnover, Low Immunity, and the Logic of Annual Mass Vaccination
The demographic profile matters because rabies does not wait for convenient campaign schedules. Survival analysis in the selected study site showed a median lifespan of 4.4 years and an annual mortality hazard of 16%, numbers that point to a population in constant replacement. In practical terms, even when campaign teams reach high coverage, births and deaths can rapidly pull immunity below the threshold needed to interrupt dog-to-dog transmission. WHO guidance recommends vaccination of at least 70% of the total dog population, but the survey suggests that sustaining that level in Antananarivo will require repeated, city-wide effort rather than one-off drives.
Vaccination history offered even more reason for concern. Among owned dogs, 64.2% had never been vaccinated. Owners most often pointed to time constraints, lack of awareness about the need for rabies vaccination, and financial barriers. Those three obstacles line up with a familiar urban control problem: the dogs are visible enough to be owned, but not consistently visible enough to be vaccinated on schedule. When dogs roam freely and households face competing demands on time and money, campaign access becomes as important as vaccine supply.
Household Factors Shaping Dog Ownership Across the Capital
Ownership was not evenly distributed across the city. The analysis found positive associations between dog ownership and household location, household size, and the household head’s age, education, and income. In epidemiological terms, dog ownership in Antananarivo is tied to household structure and socioeconomic position, not simply to preference. Those patterns matter because owned dogs are the primary bridge between domestic life and rabies transmission, especially in neighborhoods where dogs move freely between compounds and public spaces.
The survey design intentionally captured that variability. Field teams conducted a biphasic door-to-door transect survey in the selected _fokontany_, with a target of at least 100 households per unit. Interviews were conducted in Malagasy by trained interviewers using Kobo Collect, and the study area was selected to include both economically vulnerable and economically affluent neighborhoods across the six Arrondissements. The result is a city-level estimate built from local realities rather than from an outdated or purely model-based assumption.
Bite Risk Tracks Children, Not Dog Ownership Alone
Human bite incidence did not differ significantly between households with dogs and households without them. This finding pushes attention away from ownership status alone and toward where and how exposure occurs. Households with children under 15 years experienced a significantly higher bite risk, which fits the everyday mechanics of rabies exposure: children are shorter, more likely to approach or be approached by dogs at close range, and less able to interpret warning behavior or avoid provocation. In a setting where dog vaccination is incomplete, every bite in a child deserves rapid attention.
The study’s bite findings also sharpen the case for post-exposure prophylaxis access. Madagascar has established 32 PEP centres across the country’s districts, but each serves an average of 700,000 people, and Antananarivo accounts for about 60% of all bite patients seeking care nationwide. In 2024, the capital recorded 6,731 bite cases. Those figures likely understate the real burden because active bite surveillance is absent, meaning the official count reflects care-seeking more than incidence. In a rabies-endemic city, the gap between injury and treatment can be fatal.
Why Door-to-Door Vaccination Still Makes Sense in a Dense Urban Setting
The study supports a campaign strategy built around the way dogs actually move through Antananarivo. Annual city-wide vaccination campaigns that combine door-to-door outreach with fixed-point sites are the most plausible route to reaching a larger share of the owned population. Door-to-door teams can find dogs that do not appear at static sites, while fixed points can capture owners who are able to travel and may return for follow-up. In a population with high turnover and substantial free roaming, neither method alone is enough.
This is also where local demography intersects with rabies biology. Short dog lifespan, incomplete vaccination, and movement across household boundaries create repeated opportunities for susceptible animals to enter transmission chains. The city’s challenge is not merely to vaccinate dogs once, but to keep replenishing immunity as the population changes. That requires logistics, community trust, and public communication that reaches owners before the next breeding cycle and before the next bite.
A More Actionable Map for Rabies Elimination in Antananarivo
The updated estimates from Antananarivo fill a long-standing gap left by older dog ecology figures that no longer fit the city’s current demographic reality. They also clarify which interventions deserve priority: sustained vaccination, better owner awareness, reduced financial and time barriers, and faster access to PEP for bite victims. The data argue for special attention to paediatric exposure, since households with children under 15 years carried the clearest elevation in bite risk.
Rabies elimination in the owned dog population will depend on whether vaccination can keep pace with turnover, not whether a single campaign briefly reaches the 70% target. The study’s own numbers make that plain. With 64.2% of owned dogs never vaccinated, a median dog lifespan of 4.4 years, and a citywide dog-to-human ratio of 1:9, Antananarivo needs a control program built for constant replacement, not static coverage targets.